Can Europe Truly Cut Its Dependence on the US? The Real Cost of Strategic Autonomy

Europe weighs defence independence and trade risks as tensions with Washington reshape the transatlantic alliance

Trump’s tariffs and defence demands push Europe to rethink US dependence. 

Europe is facing a moment of truth. Fresh pressure from Washington. From tariffs on European goods to renewed demands that NATO allies pay more for their own defence has forced leaders across the continent to confront a hard question: Can Europe reduce truly cut its dependence on the United States, and if yes, at what cost? 

Former US President Donald Trump’s return to aggressive trade policies and blunt talk on defence spending has shaken the transatlantic alliance. Add to that renewed rhetoric around Greenland, a Danish territory that has long carried strategic military value, and European capitals are beginning to ask whether the era of automatic US security guarantees is fading.

At the recent Munich Security Conference, senior US officials insisted America is not abandoning its allies. But the mood in the room told a different story. European leaders spoke openly about “strategic autonomy” a polite phrase that now carries serious weight. The message was clear: Europe must be ready to stand on its own.

Background

How We Got Here

Since the end of World War II, Europe’s security architecture has relied heavily on the United States. NATO, formed in 1949, placed the US at the heart of European defence. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, that reliance deepened. The US became the single largest military supporter of Kyiv.

European states increased spending, but Washington still carried the biggest share of the burden. At the same time, trade tensions never fully disappeared. During Trump’s first term, tariffs were imposed on European steel and aluminium, and disputes over aircraft subsidies and digital taxes strained relations.

Now, with talk of fresh tariffs and louder demands that Europe finance its own defence, the alliance is being tested again. European leaders are responding by accelerating defence investment, boosting domestic arms production, and discussing ways to reduce dependence on US military technology. But independence is expensive.

Key Details: -

1. The US has imposed tariffs on certain European goods, reigniting trade tensions.
2. Washington continues to pressure NATO members to increase defence spending.
3. Europe is exploring “strategic autonomy” in defence and industry.
4. The war in Ukraine exposed Europe’s reliance on US military support.
5. Greenland’s strategic importance has resurfaced in geopolitical discussions.

Defence

The Hard Reality

Many European countries have pledged to meet NATO’s 2 percent of GDP defence spending target. Some, like Poland and the Baltic states, now spend even more. Germany created a special €100 billion defence fund after Russia invaded Ukraine. France continues to push for stronger European defence industries.

The European Union has also rolled out plans to boost joint arms production. But building an independent military capacity is not just about money. It takes time, industrial capacity, political unity and coordination across 27 EU member states.

Europe still depends heavily on US intelligence, logistics, satellite systems and advanced weapons technology. Replacing that would require years of investment, and difficult political compromises.

Trade and Economic Exposure

The US and EU remain each other’s largest trading partners. Transatlantic trade in goods and services runs into trillions of dollars annually. Any serious trade war would hurt both sides. If tariffs escalate, European exporters, especially in automotive, manufacturing and agriculture could face heavy losses.

On the flip side, American firms operating in Europe would also feel the heat. Europe is also trying to reduce economic vulnerabilities by diversifying trade partnerships and investing in green technology and semiconductor production. But decoupling from the US is far more complicated than political speeches suggest.

International Concern

The question of reducing dependence on a dominant ally is not unique to Europe. Across Asia, countries are also navigating their reliance on the US security umbrella while managing economic ties with China.

Globally, we are witnessing a shift from tight alliances toward more transactional relationships. Strategic autonomy is becoming a buzzword not just in Brussels, but in capitals around the world.

For Nigeria and Africa, any fracture in US-Europe relations carries economic and security implications. Europe is a major trading partner for Nigeria, especially in energy exports. A weaker European economy triggered by trade disputes or defence overspending could affect demand for oil and gas.

On security, instability in Europe often reshapes global priorities. If the US pulls back from Europe and shifts focus elsewhere, Africa could either see reduced Western engagement or renewed competition for influence.

Energy markets are also sensitive. Tensions between the US and Europe could disrupt supply chains, pricing and investment flows, all of which matter to Nigeria’s economy.

What This Means

Europe’s push for independence is real, but full autonomy remains distant. The continent can strengthen its position, but replacing US power entirely is unrealistic in the short term. This is as much political as it is economic. European unity is fragile. Not all EU countries agree on how far to go in distancing themselves from Washington.

Washington’s posture matters. If US leaders continue to treat alliances as transactional deals rather than long-term partnerships, Europe will accelerate its autonomy plans. The cost will be high. Defence expansion means bigger budgets. Trade disputes mean slower growth. Strategic autonomy is not free, it demands sacrifices.

What to Watch Next: -

1. Whether European countries consistently meet or exceed NATO’s 2% defence target.
2. The scale of EU investment in joint defence production.
3. Any escalation or easing of US-EU tariff disputes.
4. How the war in Ukraine shapes transatlantic military coordination.
5. Signals from Washington about long-term commitment to NATO.

FAQ

Q1: Can Europe defend itself without the US?

A: Not fully in the short term. Europe is increasing defence spending, but it still relies heavily on US capabilities.