Recently, a viral post is being reposted and populated across social media handles claiming that President Tinubu has more financial capacity than Buhari because the Naira’s devaluation allows him to earn more from oil sales. Not increased Oil production capacity oh! But Oil 🛢️ Sales Per Barrel 😊
- Facebook — Ganiyu Maroof: “Under Buhari… if Nigeria sell 1million barrels…” &
- Instagram — identical post
- Facebook — Ogunniyi Joy reposting the same content
- Facebook — another shared via “Ayegbo's” account.
The post argues that while Buhari earned ₦32 billion from 1 million barrels sold at ₦450 per dollar, Tinubu supposedly earns ₦105 billion at ₦1500, suggesting that a weaker Naira means more money and more power to repay debts.
But, is that really TRUE?
This trending economic post going round on Whatsapp groups, Facebook, Instagram, and Telegram claiming that:
“Tinubu earns four times what Buhari did from the same oil sales because he converts dollars at ₦1500 instead of ₦450.”
That sounds logical, until you look deeper. In reality, that extra ₦70 billion is not real profit; it’s the product of a weaker currency and rising inflation.
Many believe Tinubu earns four times what Buhari did from oil sales due to Naira devaluation, but real economics tells a different story about value, debt, and Nigeria’s true capacity to pay.
There are several flaws and misleading assumptions in that referenced post, even though it’s dressed up to sound like an economic explanation. So, follow me let’s break it down calmly, factually, and with clear reasoning grounded in reality...
🧩 CLAIM 1:
“Under Buhari...if Nigeria sells 1 million barrels of oil at $70, and changes it at ₦450, he gets ₦32 billion.
If Tinubu sells same at ₦1500, he gets ₦105 billion... almost 4 times what Buhari gets.”
✅ Truth: Mathematically correct 💯, but economically misleading.
💡 Reality check:
- The exchange rate is not a “profit multiplier.”
- A weaker Naira (₦1500/$) means the currency has lost value, so while you get more Naira per dollar, those Naira buy far less.
- In real terms, it’s like selling the same oil but your money now buys fewer bags of rice, fewer materials, fewer imports.
- The “extra” ₦73 billion is not profit, it’s inflationary illusion caused by currency devaluation.
🧠 Example:
If ₦1,000 was used to buy a bag of rice under Buhari, and that same bag of rice now cost ₦3,000 under Tinubu, the ₦105 billion he “gets” can only buy the same (or even less) goods Buhari could buy with ₦32 billion.
🧩 CLAIM 2:
“Tinubu has more capacity to pay off ₦152 trillion debt than Buhari had with ₦87 trillion.”
❌ False and inconsistent with debt realities.
💡 Reality check:
- Debt repayment capacity is not about how many Naira you can print; it’s about revenue vs. obligations, especially in foreign currency terms.
- Over 38% of Nigeria’s debt (as at 2025) is external, owed in dollars, euros, and yuan.
- So, if Naira loses value, Nigeria actually needs more Naira to pay the same dollar debt. → That means less capacity, not more.
🧠 Example:
If Nigeria owes $10 billion and the rate jumps from ₦450 to ₦1500, repayment rises from ₦4.5 trillion to ₦15 trillion.
That’s three times harder to pay off, not easier.
🧩 CLAIM 3:
“55% of Nigeria’s debt is in Naira… so he can pay easily.”
❌ Half-truth.
Yes, domestic debt can be paid in Naira, but:
💡 Reality check:
- Domestic debt payments come from federal revenue, not arbitrary currency conversion.
- Inflation, high interest rates, and weakened investor confidence make it more expensive for the government to borrow locally.
- Printing Naira to “pay” increases money supply, worsening inflation, and pushing interest rates higher, hurting businesses and households.
So, having debt “in Naira” doesn’t make it easier, it just means you can inflate your way out, but at the cost of economic pain.
🧩 CLAIM 4:
“Capacity to borrow is a good thing; the US and China borrow too.”
✅ True, but grossly oversimplified and misapplied.
💡 Reality check:
- The US borrows in its own strong currency (USD), backed by global trust, productivity, and technology.
- China borrows mainly in Yuan, backed by huge exports, manufacturing, and foreign reserves.
- Nigeria borrows in a weak currency (Naira) and often in foreign currency (USD, Eurobond), with low productivity and heavy import dependence.
Borrowing is not the issue; what you borrow for and how you repay is the key.
If the borrowed funds don’t produce income-generating infrastructure or industries, it becomes a debt trap.
🧩 CLAIM 5:
“Tinubu will keep borrowing to fix infrastructure; that’s how development works.”
✅ In principle yes, but…
💡 Reality check:
- Borrowing for infrastructure only works if corruption is curbed and projects are efficiently managed.
- Under Tinubu so far, there’s no clear national plan, or let me rather put it this way: there hasn't been a clear national plan showing how borrowed funds will translate into measurable productivity gains.
- Investors and lenders care about debt sustainability, not exchange rate arithmetic.
Without strong exports, manufacturing, or energy revenue growth, borrowing more deepens dependency and weakens the economy.
🧩 CLAIM 6:
“Tinubu sees beyond our time… hungry people don’t see vision.”
That’s an emotional appeal, not economics.
It distracts from the facts with insults and moral posturing. Real economists deal with data, trade balances, inflation rates, interest rates, and fiscal performance, not who “sees vision.”
⚖️ And Here's a Balanced Counter Summary:
- Devaluation increases Naira figures but reduces real value, it’s not more money, it’s weaker money.
- External debt becomes harder to service under devaluation.
- Borrowing capacity comes from productivity, not exchange rate.
- Inflation and weak exports reduce repayment ability.
- Borrowing for infrastructure is fine, but only if these projects yield measurable growth.
🧾 Final Verdict:
The post is a classic propaganda piece 🧩, mixing half-truths with emotional framing to make Tinubu’s government look economically superior. Nigeria deserves better.
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