 |
| Before national ambition comes regional stability. Governance, unity, security and economic recovery remain key tests for the South-East’s leadership credibility. |
Calls for a South-East Nigerian to become Nigeria’s next president are loud and persistent. Many see it as a fair demand because every region deserves a shot at the nation’s highest office. But before those calls turn into votes, there’s an unavoidable question: Can the South-East credibly lead Nigeria if it hasn’t fully fixed its own region?
That question is not meant to belittle aspirations. It is meant to confront reality.
For leadership at the national level to be credible, a region must prove it can govern itself effectively. And right now, the South-East’s performance on key fronts; governance, unity, economy, and security doesn’t yet give that kind of confidence to the broader Nigerian electorate.
Background
A Region of Potential and Problems
The South-East is home to a vibrant, industrious people known for business acumen, resilience, and talent. Cities like Onitsha, Aba, Enugu and Nnewi are economic hubs whose influence extends far beyond the region.
But potential alone does not translate into political leadership capacity.
In recent years, the South-East has grappled with recurring “sit-at-home” orders enforced by non-state actors, notably followers of the banned Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). These orders, which originally began as political protest, have evolved into a major socio-economic crisis. According to research, the region has lost an estimated ₦17 trillion in nearly five years due to these weekly shutdowns of business and trade activity.
This economic damage has weakened investor confidence and disrupted commerce in the once-bustling markets located in these regions.
Security challenges linked to separatist protests have also left a toll. In one widely reported case, the 2024 Aba killings left at least 11 people dead in an attack tied to conflicting sit-at-home directives, underscoring how violence and unrest have worsened instability in the region.
Why Leadership at Home First
Representing Nigeria at the presidential level requires a track record of governance, unity, and security management. Talent and economic ingenuity are strengths, but they must be matched with political stability and credible public institutions.
Governance and Public Services
Many South-East governors have faced criticism for failing to turn regional potential into tangible improvements in infrastructure, basic services and economic diversification. Independent surveys that rank performance across states often show mixed or modest progress compared with other regions.
The region’s average Internal Generated Revenue (IGR) has been weakened by recurring disruptions and a slow pace of infrastructure modernization, making it harder to fund developmental priorities without federal intervention.
Unity and Political Cohesion
Political unity matters at the national level. While some regions speak with a strategic, and sometimes a unified voice during national elections, the South-East has a history of splintered political allegiances, except for the 2023 general elections. The often divided support across several parties, candidate, and vivid animosity against other Nigerians from other regions instead of consolidating around a shared agenda. This fragmentation can weaken bargaining power and reduce influence in national decisions.
Deep unity begins with consensus on regional priorities, followed by collaborative action.
Security and Economic Confidence
The ongoing sit-at-home orders have done more than just depress economic activity. They have eroded confidence in the region’s stability. Independent reports tie this pattern of protest to several hundred deaths over the past few years, as factions enforce shutdowns and clash with security forces.
Talents, and professionals now relocate to safer cities outside the region where markets remain cautious, and local businesses struggle to thrive under uncertainty. A region that cannot guarantee uninterrupted commerce, safe schooling, and secure daily life will struggle to convince Nigerians nationwide that it can safeguard the whole country.
KEY DETAILS
- South-East Nigeria’s calls for presidential leadership are strong but face credibility questions.
- Recurring sit-at-home directives have cost the region an estimated ₦17 trillion in economic activity.
- Security incidents such as the Aba killings underscore ongoing instability.
- Regional unity remains fragmented across board.
- Leadership must first demonstrate effective governance, economic stability, in their regions.
INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK
Regional leadership aspirations often follow demonstrated governance success. In many democracies, sub-national performance, how well states or provinces are governed influences national leadership credibility.
For example, in federal systems like the United States, governors with strong records on economic growth and crisis management often become viable presidential candidates. This global pattern underscores that domestic achievement builds national credibility.
Nigeria’s ethnic and regional balance is central to its political stability. Power rotation across zones fosters the sense of inclusion necessary in a diverse society.
However, that balance should not be symbolic only. It must be backed by real performance. When a region claims readiness for national leadership, the rest of the country looks not only at rhetoric but at reality, the region’s ability to govern itself effectively, deliver services, and safeguard lives.
For the South-East, improving these fundamentals would strengthen its case for producing Nigeria’s next president.
WHAT THIS MEANS
The debate about a South-East presidency is about more than regional pride, it’s about competence and credibility.
Nigeria has suffered leadership crises in the past. Society desires leaders who have shown problem-solving capacity, unity, and governance at levels below the presidency first. Simply calling for a turn at the top without evidence of internal success risks turning aspiration into an empty slogan.
Fixing the region does not weaken its presidential ambition, it sharpens it. When a region can demonstrate progress, stability, unity, and economic momentum, the rest of Nigeria is more likely to trust its leaders with national responsibility.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
- Progress toward ending sit-at-home economic disruptions in the South-East.
- Performance rankings and public perception of South-East state governors.
- Ongoing impact of security reforms following the sentencing of separatist leaders.
- Trends in internally generated revenue and investor confidence in the region.
- Political movements and coalition building within South-East electoral blocs.
FAQ
Q1: Does the South-East already have serious presidential contenders?
A: The region has influential figures, but national influence depends on broader credibility built through governance and unity.
Q2: Are sit-at-home orders still happening in the South-East?
A: Enforcement has weakened, but the legacy of economic disruption and insecurity still continues to influence investor confidence.
Q3: Can strong regional governance help the South-East produce a president?
A: Yes. Demonstrated stability, economic growth, and political unity amongst leaders and the general populace builds national trust and stronger leadership cases.
0 Comments